| Trends: | 97
|
1H98
|
2H98
|
99
|
| $ Important Listed Companies | ||||
| Alpargatas-Santista Têxtil, Hering, Karsten, Teka, Artex, Cremer, Coteminas, Braspérola/Teba, Marisol, Pettenati, São Paulo Alpargatas, Schlosser | ||||
| Other Relevant Companies | ||||
| Sul-Fabril, Du Pont, Farway Filamentos, Grupo Vicunha, Malwee | ||||
| O The Brazilian Industry | ||||
| The
textile industry is composed of four basic segments: spinning (production of natural,
artificial or synthetic yarn), weaving and knitwear (woven and knitted fabrics), finishing
(zippers, buttons and other accessories) and clothing per se. According to Abit, the
sector association, there were 4,590 firms involved (550 in yarn manufacture, 700 turning
out woven materials, 2,960 knitwear companies and 370 producing accessories). The
workforce totaled 1.47 million. Three percent of companies in the first three segments are large-scale (more than 200 employees), 43% medium-sized (51 to 200 workers), 36% small (11 to 50) and 18% cottage industries (up to 10). The most important textile complexes are those of São Paulo (spinning and material for clothing), Minas Gerais (yarn and simple, light fabrics) and Santa Catarina (responsible for 90% of national output of bedclothes, table linen and bathroom items and 80% of knitwear). The latter, more specifically the Vale do Itajaí, uses the most up-to-date technology, comparable to that in Taiwan, Hong Kong and S. Korea. Thanks to its healthy productivity, high product quality and the global success of typically Brazilian color schemes, certain Santa Catarina firms, especially in the bed-table-bath segment, earn most of their revenue from foreign sales. All in all, exports account for 28% of production. No less than 80% of clothing manufacturers are small-scale, 15% midrange and only 5% can be described as big. There are approximately 15,000 registered companies and a further 20,000 operating illegally as part of the "informal" economy. The small and tiny firms predominate, being responsible for 95% of total apparel output. In general, the segment employs outmoded technology and productivity is limited for a variety of factors, including inefficient production and distribution management methods. Most companies (57%) are concentrated in São Paulo state, with the remainder being spread through Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Ceará, Pernambuco, Santa Catarina, Paraná, Goiás and Espírito Santo. |
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| m The Global Industry | ||||
| Overseas
sales of yarn, material and clothing have remained more or less static since the beginning
of the 90s, hovering between US$ 1.3 and US$ 1.4 billion p.a. Most shipments, more
than 30%, are routed to Mercosur and 20% to the USA. Globally, the sector turns over around US$ 314 billion p.a., with Brazil accounting for only 0.4% of the total. |
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| I Attention! | ||||
| Given the recent increase in interest rates and taxes, not to mention the cuts in public spending, the economic depression is likely to continue in the short and medium term. | ||||
| L Outlook | ||||
| We
expect output to slide by 14.5% in 1998 and 20.5% in 1999, assuming zero GDP growth in the
former year and a 1.5% decline in the latter with respective unemployment figures of 8.0%
and 12%. Department and apparel stores may bring their end-of-summer promotions forward to January/99 in order to off-load stocks left over from the expected poor Christmas, as they did at the beginning of the current year. Next years imports are likely to be similar to those in 1998, thanks to the domestic-market slowdown and tariff safeguards. Exports should continue to fall, as they did this year, and the industry will face problems in recouping its share of the global market. Other negative factors include the cuts in the Brazil in Action and Special Export programs, the reduction in foreign trade in general, the constant risk of reduced import quotas being applied by Europe, North America and Latin America, and increased competition from countries with a hitherto insignificant share of international trade. |
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